Stern’s exit spells danger for terrestrial radio
It’s unclear as of yet how lucrative Sirius’s $500m deal with Howard Stern will be. Sources vary on the subscription value of Stern’s audience, and it’s questionable how many will follow. One thing is certain, however; terrestrial radio is having a hard time replacing Howard.
Whether or not Stern’s audience switches to Sirius, they won’t be sticking with Infinity Broadcasting. And it’ll take a miracle for somebody to really fill Howard Stern’s shoes.
Stern stations were expected to take a major financial hit, with estimates of about $100 million in lost revenue for Infinity. There’s the promise of lost audience, too; a July study of Stern fans showed just five per cent of his estimated 12 million listeners plan to stick with his ex-stations once Howard abdicates.
“This turns a lot of listeners loose,” said Taylor. “The competition has been looking forward to this for a long time.”
A top radio executive, speaking recently with Billboard Radio Monitor editor in chief Scott McKenzie, said taking over for Stern was a no-win proposition.
“His feeling was you want to be the guy replacing the guy who replaced Howard,” McKenzie said. “Because no matter who the first guy is, Howard’s audience is going to hate him.”
The list of possible Stern replacements grows more and more prestigious every day. The exclusive fellowship includes top stars like Jon Stewart and Whoopi Goldberg, though the most likely candidates so far are David Lee Roth on the east cost and Adam Carola on the west. There is always the fear, however, that the coveted spot will become the touch of death for anyone attempting to take over. It may well blow up in everyone’s faces: Infinity loses their biggest star, the replacement commits career hari-kari, and Sirius posts a loss when they don’t make up Howard’s salary in subscriptions. The only guaranteed winner is Howard, who will retire rich and happy.
January 12th, 2006 at 3:39 pm
[...] Even before Stern’s replacements were decided upon, experts predicted that whoever replaces whoever replaced Howard would be a winner. Does that mean Dave is doomed? [...]